Get the tools and mindsets to become a leader who can navigate exponential change
With discontinuity and change increasingly becoming the new normal for the public sector, leaders are having to change their mindsets and approach to dealing with change.
ANZSOG’s Leading Through Exponential Change (LTEC) Program Director Brenton Caffin says that public services are operating in an environment of ‘polycrisis’ and need to accept that old ways of working and thinking are no longer fit-for-purpose.
“Discontinuity is the new normal. I think for a lot of people, particularly coming out of COVID, the expectation was we'll get through this and then we can resume normal programming, but I don't think that there is a safe place that we can return to,” he said.
“The context that we're operating in now is one of multiple compounding, overlapping crises – geopolitical, economic and environmental, as well as technological change.
“A lot of things that we have taken for granted as part of the furniture of our policy settlements can't be assumed to continue. Everything from the nature of work to the future of the firm, to basic macroeconomics, to geopolitical alliances which are dissolving after decades of stability.”
LTEC helps leaders understand how to anticipate change, test ideas and lead action – as well as giving them an individual action plan for their organisation.
It focuses on applying three ‘superpowers’ of anticipation, experimentation and participation to navigate an uncertain future.
“These three capability sets are mutually reinforcing rather than a linear three-stage process. Ideally, you will be building these sets of muscles and deploying all of them together in concert,” Mr Caffin said.
Anticipation – learning to rehearse the future
“Anticipation is rehearsing the future. Having the ability to understand the likely changes that are coming towards us, and the broader range of how that might play out for our organisations is critical to give us response time,” he said.
During his time as a senior executive in the South Australian government, Mr Caffin set up a foresight unit in the Premier’s Department which used a range of foresight tools to develop an overarching economic narrative for the state.
He said that the work cascaded down into the strategies of 18 agencies – ensuring different policies from manufacturing to tourism were informed by the same analysis, and were able to pull the state in the same direction.
“There isn’t just one future, there are many possible futures,” he said
“You can rehearse the future by trend analysis, horizon scanning and building scenarios. We can use visioning exercises which actually help you engage in a conversation about what kind of future we would prefer to bring about. Because if you can't imagine it, you can't drive for it.”
Experimentation - reducing risk in unpredictable environments
Experimentation is a natural complement to anticipation because it lets governments test out a range of different responses to potential futures to reduce risks.
“We need experimentation because change often means there won't be a playbook for what policy lever works in this particular context,” Mr Caffin said.
“The experimentation lens really is about asking how you design smart experiments? How do you be clear about your hypotheses? How do you design good tests? How do you resource that? How do you evaluate whether or not it's having the impact you want?
“Finally it is about how we do not just experiment in a random scattergun way, but instead actually build a portfolio of experimentation? Cheap, early experimentation, where you fail fast and fail early, and get the problems out of the system before you do large scale national rollouts, is actually a mechanism for de-risking.”
Participation – building social licence for hard changes
Mr Caffin said that community participation in the work of government was increasingly important for legitimacy and social licence - and was often undercooked by governments.
“When you haven't done things before, you need to find ways of building that kind of genuine feedback loop with citizens that engages them in the designs of policies and which builds and sustains social license to do hard things. Because we are going to have to do hard things, whether it's transitioning our grid off fossil fuels or integrating AI into our economy and society in a way that doesn't leave people behind.”
How do public leaders need to respond to a ‘polycrisis’ environment?
Leaders need to be prepared to act, and drive change within their own organisations, and push back against organisational reactivity, Mr Caffin said.
“The hard-nosed reality is we live within a constrained environment. The real question then is how do we think about the resources we have in our control and how they might be invested, redeployed, or re-imagined so that we actually have greater operational flexibility?"
Participants in the LTEC program will have access to a range of guest experts, including Aaron Maniam who set up the Singapore Government’s Centre for Strategic Futures, and other experts who have stood up innovation and foresight structures in Australia, New Zealand and the United Nations.
“We are not just going to hear Foresight 101 from these people, although that will be part of it. Participants will take away some very rich lessons in leadership for how you actually bring about the creation and the institutionalisation and sustaining of these capabilities,” Mr Caffin said.
All LTEC participants will undertake a change audit and develop an Action Plan for their organisation to underline their commitment to change and overcome the reactivity of the public service.
“In LTEC we reflect on the role of personal leadership and willingness to actually kind of make the change by exercising your own agency, and moving beyond BAU,” he said.
“As well as tools and mindsets that includes how much of their personal and ‘small-p ‘ political capital they are prepared to invest to bring about some of these changes.”
“It’s an opportunity for people to think about what changes they might want and how to make those pitches effectively. Junior executives will practice pitching to senior executives. Senior executives will practice pitching to ministers, the need for resources or the freedom to put things into practice, as well as selling their vision to staff.”
Leading Through Exponential Change at a Glance
Who it’s for: This program is designed for senior public sector leaders responsible for driving transformational change, strengthening strategic judgement and enabling innovation within their organisations. LTEC differs from other leadership programs is its tight focus on how the public sector is experiencing exponential change, and its combination of foresight with experimentation and action. It's about helping public sector leaders actually determine what to do and then test that in practice.
What You’ll Learn: The program combines online learning with a four-day residential, designed to support both flexibility and deep engagement over time. Build foundations, explore key trends (including AI and emerging technologies), and frame your organisational challenge. Post-program modules support application and embed learning, through your individual Change Action Plan.
2027 Dates:
· Program commencement: Tuesday 27 April 2027
· Online workshop 1: Tuesday 11 May 2027
· Residential (Melbourne): 24-27 May 2027
· Online workshop 2: Tuesday 3 August 2027
Cost: Full price $18,000 (inc.GST), subsidised price $13,500 (inc.GST)
In response to the unprecedented pace and complexity of change facing the public sector, we’re pleased to be providing a 25% subsidy for the first 25 leaders enrolling in this program. Applications close on 20 April, 2027.
For more information:
You can visit the Leading Through Exponential Change page on our website, or you can contact us at engage@anzsog.edu.au or 1300 ANZSOG for more information. You can also book a 1:1 consultation to see if Leading Through Exponential Change is right for you