Back to the future? Maria Katsonis revisits a 2006 forecasting project

In this article, Maria Katsonis, editor of ANZSOG’s The Bridge and an Industry Fellow, Public Policy at the University of Melbourne, explores the potential of futures thinking by revisiting her role as leader of a 2006 Victorian Government project to predict what the public sector might look like in 2025.   

Futures thinking is playing an increasing role in public policy. It recognises the need for long-term thinking and policies underpinned by an understanding of emerging trends and issues. Today public managers have access to more foresight resources such as the OECD’s Strategic Foresight Toolkit and the Australian Government’s Futures Primer. A recent ANZSOG article pointed to the need for public leaders to exercise their stewardship responsibilities by thinking well into the future. 

But what becomes of the future when it is revisited? How does past thinking align with present realities?  In 2006 I was the director for a Victorian government project, The Future of the Public Sector in 2025. Well, that future has now arrived, providing an opportunity to reflect on the past.  

The project did not attempt to predict the future. Instead, the aim was to map the interconnected drivers of change that could shape the future and craft plausible narratives about how it could unfold. The project asked ‘what if’ questions. What if the long economic boom came to an end? – what if there was a shift in geopolitical power? – what if our social identity centred increasingly on the individual or on the community? – what if…?   

The future of the public sector in 2025

To answer these questions, the project used strategic foresight and scenario planning. Scenario planning provides a framework for mapping multiple possible futures. It does not predict the future. Instead, it recognises that the future is uncertain and explores this uncertainty It has been called “the art of the long view”, allowing decision-makers to identify emerging opportunities, mitigate risks and build more adaptive strategies. 

The project comprised three stages. The first was a series of interviews at Secretary/Deputy Secretary level in each public service department about their concerns and aspirations for the future. This was supplemented with research on future trends and the drivers of change in nature, society, politics public administration, the economy and technology (the INSPECT framework).  

The final stage of the project brought together 60 participants from all government departments in a series of scenario planning workshops. Participants spanned all levels, from Deputy Secretaries to recent graduates, and held diverse work roles encompassing policy, program delivery, legislation and corporate services. Participants came from urban and rural portfolios with experience in health, education, policing, emergency services, family services, finance, infrastructure, industry development, biotechnology, central agencies and the arts. 

The future scenarios

During the workshops, participants identified 800 drivers of change which could affect the public sector environment. These were then categorised into a set of ‘top eight’ drivers: demography, economy, work environment, energy/climate change, health, education, social identity, technology and the wild card – those drivers of change that are impossible to predict. We included examples in the report such as environmental disasters, terrorism and … drum roll … a major pandemic!  

The economy and social identity were chosen as the scenarios’ foundation. These were mapped on a 2 x 2 matrix and layered with other drivers to create the scenarios of BRICS and Mortar, Why Generation, Climatica and Urbaniquity.  

Figure 1: The 2×2 matrix and scenarios 

Why Generation is an era of new ideas, a period of experimentation and contestability. People are better educated and connected. They are willing to be answerable for their own actions, accepting a high degree of personal responsibility for their own education, healthcare and retirement savings. 

Urbaniquity is a time of high economic growth, a culturally vibrant core, and a positive global outlook. Victoria has retained its standing as a desirable destination to do business and as a place to live. Local business is globally competitive and economic prosperity results in high standards of living.  

In Climatica, global environmental pressures have reshaped government and society. Communities have mobilised around environmental issues and have greater ecological consciousness. Energy prices are high, weakening the economy and underpinning inflation.  

BRICs and Mortar denotes a period of instability. Shifts in geopolitical power emerge as the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – rise. A weak economy and high unemployment result in citizens placing increasing demands on government to solve social problems and stimulate economic activity. 

 Seven issues across the scenarios were highlighted as having implications for the public sector: strengthening trust in government; choice in public services; supporting individual responsibility; working with the private and NGO sectors; collaboration across portfolios and jurisdictions; workforce planning; and a high performing public sector. 

Foresight in hindsight

Despite the passing of 20 years, parts of the report could be written today. At the same time, the future hasn’t exactly played out as written. Reflecting on the long-term impact of the project, its most significant contribution was introducing what was then thought of as a novel methodology to the Victorian public sector. Participants used the scenarios to inform their own strategic plans, and some departments subsequently undertook their own scenario planning projects.  

Scenario planning has been described as “the gentle art of reperceiving”. It has the capacity to re-frame issues and information in a time of change and complexity. For participants, it tested existing mental models and challenged assumptions about the unfolding environment.  The scenario process of converting information into fresh perceptions can also have a “breeder effect”, generating new energy and ideas. This was certainly the case with the project with participants commented positively on the process. It gave them the opportunity to think big, work collaboratively and look beyond the immediate issues of the day.  

Despite the uncertainty that the future holds, perhaps the more things change, the more they stay the same. In 1976, Nugget Combs – the distinguished public servant – gave an address on the future bureaucracy. Coombs commented he could not speak with an authoritative prescience, but he did say: “Neither the government nor the bureaucracy exists in isolation. They form part of the complex pattern of the institutions of our society – a pattern which continues to evolve in time and to which a multitude of influences contribute”.  

It is an equally apt comment today when contemplating the future of the public sector whether it’s 2025 or 2045.  

Click here for a full copy of ‘The future of the public sector in 2025’